ALERTS:

Fire Weather Watch for Dutchess, Ulster, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester counties in effect into this evening.

While the winds will not be strong, they will be gusting up to 20 mph. The relative humidity levels will run low (30%) and the vegetation will remain dry, so there will be an elevated fire growth potential.

There is a Coastal Flood Advisory for south Westchester County in effect for Thursday from 8 a.m. to 11 a.m.

Up to 1 foot of flooding is possible along the immediate shoreline of the Long Island Sound.

The coldest air of the season so far will keep temperatures well below average into Thursday. Temperatures bounce back, as gusty winds return, by Friday.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:

The winds backed down from Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moved in overhead. While the chilly air is not always desirable, the colder air and lighter winds help firefighters combat fires, such as the Jennings Creek wildfire in Greenwood Lake. The winds will remain very light into Thursday.

The winds will gradually switch directions from a northern direction to more from the east and southeast. With a northerly direction, the winds pushed the smoke down into New Jersey. As the winds switch direction, that will potentially move the smoke towards western Orange County for portions of Thursday afternoon. The winds though will be light. However, the winds will pick up for Friday and Saturday, potentially gusting towards 30 mph or higher.

The coldest air we have felt so far is moving in for the rest of the day and Thursday. Temps will trend about 15 degrees below average for the lows and the high temps.

Temperatures will not feel too much colder than the air temperature, thankfully, with the winds being light. As the winds pick up for Friday and Saturday, the temperatures will also do the same.

There is a small chance of rain for Monday afternoon and then after, a more promising one for the second half of the upcoming workweek.

FALL FOLIAGE COLORS:

DROUGHT MONITOR:

Moderate drought (a 2 out of 5 on our scale) conditions are across all our counties. There hasn't been significant measurable rain in nearly two months.

TROPICS: There is one system being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen formed Wednesday afternoon in the western portion of the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to strengthen as it moves westward toward Honduras and then towards Belize over the course of the next several days. The next name on the list is Sara.

FIRE WEATHER RISK:

Conditions will continue to trend favorably for combating fires, such as the Jennings Creek Fire in Greenwood Lake overnight and into Wednesday. The winds will remain low, with low humidity and cool to cold temperatures.

Conditions will worsen, however, for Friday into Saturday as the winds pick up to potentially gusts to 20-30 mph.

10-DAY FORECAST:

OVERNIGHT: Mainly clear and chilly. The wind will be light thankfully, but the air will still be quite cold. Lows: Low 20s to low 30s.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy and colder. Highs: Upper 40s. Lows: Mid-30s.

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and clouds with breezy to windy winds. Highs: Mid-50s. Lows: Upper 30s.

SATURDAY: Sunny and windy. Highs: Upper 50s. Lows: Upper 30s to low 40s.

SUNDAY: Mainly sunny. Highs: Upper 50s to low 60s. Lows: Upper 30s to low 40s.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance for spotty showers. Highs: Upper 50s to low 60s. Lows: Upper 30s to low 40s.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs: Upper 50s. Lows: Upper 30s to low 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs: Upper 50s to low 60s. Lows: Upper 30s to low 40s.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance for rain. Highs: Upper 40s to low 50s. Lows: Upper 30s to low 40s.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. Highs: Mid-50s. Lows: Upper 30s to low 40s.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs: Upper 40s to low 50s. Lows: Mid-30s.