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NJPP112B_2024-11-02-14-55-04

Welcome back to New Jersey Power and Politics. I'm Eric Lanz Kroner, a new fair, Dickinson University poll revealing Democratic Congressman Andy Kim has a hefty 57 to 39% lead over Republican Curtis Bashaw in their race for us. Senate Congressman Kim's 18 point lead is in line with previous Senate elections in New Jersey. Democrats haven't lost a Senate race in the state since 1972. They've won all of them by double digits since 2006. Razor thin locked too close to call. No shortage of dramatic and descriptive language to describe just how close the race for the White House is in some of the key battleground states. Give you an example here. The latest Monmouth poll found the race in Pennsylvania is quote basically a tie, New Jersey, not a battleground far from it according to a new poll from Rutgers Eagleton. Joining me now with the findings is Ashley Coning, director of the Rutgers Eagleton Center of public interest. Polling Ashley, it's great to see you as always, great to see you too. Ok. So listen, you asked voters quite a few things. You've been really busy actually, three new polls out. Uh, we'll start with this one. You asked registered voters in the state who they're voting for or, or who they have voted for. What did you find here? Yeah, we saw some pretty comfortable leads for Democrats, whether we're talking about the presidential, the Senate or a generic congressional ballot. You know, obviously this is a high interest election and we know that New Jersey often gets his moniker for being blue and solidly blue, especially in recent history since the Clinton years when it comes to the presidential stage. So no surprise here, especially given uh the presidential in terms of the Senate, we do see that. Um There is still a lot of uh lack of awareness of these two candidates with BSA and Kim. And so that's somewhat kind of hurting the numbers of the race but still a solid lead for Kim as well. Although when we take away that partisan affiliation, we did a little bit of a survey experiment. Bashaw especially suffers an uncertainty rises simply because these candidates are still not well known. Uh Let's backtrack and let's talk about the presidential race here. We have, uh your numbers show 55% of voters, people who uh have voted or are voting for Harris, 35% for Trump. Um That's the who the people are voting for or have voted for. But how about how voters, uh who voters actually think will win here? Keeping in mind and, and you mentioned this uh in New Jersey, registered Democrats far outnumber registered Republicans. I think it's something along the lines of 920,000 right now. Yeah, exactly. So, no surprise here. Uh The majority of New Jersey voters say that they think Harris will win. Um But of course, when we look at partisan divisions on a lot of the stuff, uh Republican side with their teammate and Democrat side with their side of the aisle. So not very surprising, we see independents somewhere in the middle on a lot of this data. Um sometimes often leading towards where Democrats are as well. Uh You mentioned the party affiliation, uh factoring that into the question. Didn't really move the needle that much when asking about the race for president. Did it? No, these two candidates are universally known and very, very well known. So that really doesn't have an impact on the top of the ticket here. But we know that top of the ticket will certainly have an impact down ballot. Uh Just a few moments ago, right before we, you and I started speaking, I spoke with Lieutenant Governor Tai Wei about early voting. Uh that said you, you did look into voter participation. What did you find? Yeah, I mean, uh we see that people and obviously they want to seem desirable when they take these sort of polls. So they say that they will be likely to vote, vote. In fact, a large majority say they will definitely be likely to vote. This race is expected to have high turnout much like a lot of the presidential races that we see, especially in New Jersey. Um, record breaking could be on, you know, I in the cards too here, given just the heightened attention to this race and the presidential, of course, at the top of the ticket, uh listen to say America is deeply divided is probably the understatement of understatements right now. And uh the the growing chasm in mind, you also looked at voters outlook on the nation. Were you surprised by what you found? No outlook on the nation is pretty bleak. I think voters are fatigued, they're exhausted and they're apprehensive as our polling has shown too. In fact, when we asked them how politics these days is making them feel about half said some type of, you know, uneasiness or sickness, physical illness, stressed, scared anxiety, written kind of statement nine in 10 said something negative about politics and what it makes them feel these days. Voters also much more likely to feel angry and to feel worried rather than proud and enthusiastic. We'll get into a little bit more of that in a while, but I just want to touch on something that, that you mentioned here about uh how, how bleak uh the the findings here or how bleak the the outlook is voters believe seven in 10. So you, you said about 69% in your poll. Voters believe that the United States has gone off the wrong track here. 26% only 26% say it's headed in the right direction. I I listen, do, does that surprise you at all considering what we've seen over the last four years? No, not at all. Simply because, you know, and this is throughout all of the data partisans, uh believe there are problems similarly, but obviously, most likely think there are different solutions. And probably that the other side is the culprit for many of these challenges and problems that we're facing. You know, New Jersey voters definitely see that we, we are in dire need as a democracy right now and that things are not. Well, and I think that bridges partisan divides in terms of how to solve them though. That's when those partisan divides rear their ugly head once again. And that hyper partisanship and polarization comes into play. Democrats according to your poll are, are, are more split on the outlook than Republicans. Yeah. And you know, this is because obviously there's been some different factions in the party and really on both sides and it depends on what voters are basing this off of. Are they thinking about what might happen in the next few days and weeks? Are they thinking about what has happened in the past four years? So that question may mean different things to different respondents. But certainly, you know, this is something that kind of goes across partisanship and then goes across many key voting blocks and demographics. Uh Ashley Coning director of the Rutgers Eagleton poll. Uh, stay with us because as I mentioned, you have a couple of other polls out as well. We want to get to those in just a few moments. Stay with us right here on New Jersey, Power and Politics. We'll be right back right after the break.

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NJPP112C_2024-11-02-14-59-35

I'm Eric Lance Conor. Welcome back to New Jersey Power and Politics, uh joined again by the director of the Rutgers Eagleton poll, Ashley Conan, Ashley. Uh Thank you so much for sticking around and continuing this conversation here just a couple of days left until election day. And one of the topics that, that I think is just weighing not only on the minds of voters in the electorate in New Jersey, but uh but, but nationwide is just where our democracy is headed and that's something that you certainly looked at here. Uh And you looked at how New Jersey voters worry and feel about the future of democracy. Can you talk about the numbers? Talk about some of the specifics that you found and whether it differs at all, depending on where you fall on the political spectrum. Yeah, I mean, these numbers are, are scary. We have overwhelming majorities around eight and 10 when it comes to thinking that politics is less respectful these days thinking uh that they are worried about America's future and, and America's uh American democracy's future and also around the eight and 10 saying that uh they think that political violence will be likely after the election in the weeks and months to come. About six in 10. Think that political violence is a major problem. Um And, and also others thinking it's a minor problem in America today. So all of this is scary frankly and this is why voters feel so uneasy when voters have lived through in the past few years alone. Things like contentious protests and the riots at the Capitol on January 6th and assassination attempts. Voters on both sides of the aisle are certainly uneasy about what is ahead in the coming days. A and you did in fact ask about January 6th as well. What'd you find we did? And these numbers really haven't changed since two years ago. This is where we see those partisan divides. When we're talking about the worry of American democracy and even about political violence, we see that partisans on either sides of the aisle independence as well. They're really all feeling similarly. And in fact, you know, in similar numbers, uh we see that people say they would not commit acts of political violence. Thank goodness. Um But we also see that there is a notable minority who said they might know somebody who would. But when it comes to January 6, we certainly see Republicans, even New Jersey Republicans taking the side of Republicans nationally thinking it's an unfortunate event, but it was an exercise of a right of the first amendment and so on. And so forth, really departing from Democrats and independents on the issue of the capitol riots. Ashley Conning again. Thank you so much for being here, uh, joining us and I wanna just let our viewers know you're gonna be joining us again on election night as the results are coming in. So, uh, thank you in advance for that and thank you for today. Can't wait. Thank you so much, Eric. All right, Ashley, I'll see you soon and we thank you so much for watching New Jersey Power and Politics. I'm Eric Lz Kroner. We'll see you again next time.

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