As the federal government shutdown fight rages in Washington, both sides are battling over extending subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, better known as “Obamacare.”

If they expire at the end of this year, tens of thousands of Connecticut residents could pay more than double for health insurance.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect – and how state leaders are preparing.

In Connecticut, ACA policies are administered by Access Health CT.

Those plans can be expensive, so federal government tax credits help pay for them. However, according to the Office of Policy and Management, on Jan. 1, approximately 33,400 Connecticut residents will lose all their subsidies.

That includes people whose incomes are too high and green card holders who earn below the federal poverty level of $15,650 a year for individuals, or $32,150 for a family of four.

Even more people will lose part of their subsidies – those earning 100-400% of the poverty level (up to $66.) That group has few other options because they don't qualify for HUSKY Medicaid.

“I worry about this group because this is a group that loses all financial assistance,” OPM senior policy advisor Claudio Gualtieri told state lawmakers this week.

If you’re one of those people, watch your mailbox.

“A lot of you are going to get a notice saying, ‘Watch out, your health insurance costs could go up quite a bit,’” said Gov. Ned Lamont. “That notice goes out in the middle of October.”

ACA premiums will more than double if the tax credits expire, according to an analysis from the nonpartisan health policy group KFF.

With the expanded subsidies in place, some lower-income enrollees can get health care with no premiums, and high earners pay no more than 8.5% of their income. Eligibility for middle-class earners is also expanded.

Congress approved the larger premium subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic and extended them under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. But this summer’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” allows them to expire at the end of this year.

Extending the subsidies, as well as restoring deep cuts to Medicaid, are the main sticking points in the government shutdown.

“What we are trying to do is save the health care of the American people, lower their costs, and cancel these cuts,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).

Some Republicans have expressed an openness to extending the tax credits, acknowledging many of their constituents will see steep hikes in insurance premiums. But the party’s lawmakers in Congress argue negotiations over health care will take time, and a stopgap measure to get the government funded is a more urgent priority.

“Basically, what that strikes is all the fraud, waste and abuse that 'One Big Beautiful Bill' went after,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.).

Republicans have falsely claimed that free health care is going to immigrants living in the U.S. illegally. But these immigrants are not eligible for insurance bought on the ACA exchange or for Medicaid.

Here in Connecticut, insurance leaders are attempting to keep as many people insured as possible – a challenge given the fluctuating guidance from Washington.

“This is a moving target and one that we’re going to have to get a handle on,” said Gualtieri.

And it’s not just next year. In 2027, Access Health CT patients will have a shorter window to re-enroll. And in 2028, OPM estimated that 50,184 people enrolled in the “Covered Connecticut” plan could lose subsidies.

Even more people could lose coverage due to added paperwork and work requirements under the BBB. Access Health CT expects to lose up to 35% of current enrollees by the year 2034.

Now, state leaders are exploring if some patients can be shifted to Medicaid, Health Savings Accounts or insurance pools.

“If there’s gig employees that are, you know, may lose their coverage, or may lose their subsidies, they could join an association of some sort,” said state Rep. Kerry Wood (D-Rocky Hill), co-chair of the Legislature’s Insurance and Real Estate Committee.

Click HERE for answers to more of your questions about Access Health CT changes.

The state is also adding mobile outreach specialists and more people at call centers to help customers.