Facing a potential cut of $1 billion or more from the Trump administration, Connecticut lawmakers are poised to advance a plan to protect schools, child care and other critical services on Tuesday.

But it has a problem.

Their budget exceeds the state spending cap – and some groups worry that it won’t be enough to make up for deep federal funding cuts.

When billionaire Elon Musk pulled out a chainsaw at February’s Conservative Political Action Conference, the message was clear. His Department of Government Efficiency wants to slash federal spending by up to $2 trillion over the next decade.

“This is the chainsaw for bureaucracy,” he told the cheering crowd.

The White House already cut $150 million for the Connecticut Department of Public Health, and Gov. Ned Lamont recently warned that $52 million is at risk to prevent deadly floods like those that hit the Naugatuck Valley last summer.

Connecticut could also lose at least $200 million in Medicaid funds for lower-income families under the Republican congressional budget proposal. Half a billion dollars in education aid is at stake too.

At the state Capitol, lawmakers are scrambling to protect critical services. On Tuesday, the Legislature’s Appropriations Committee advanced a two-year, $49.3 billion budget.

“This is a real budget for real people in real life,” said the committee co-chair, state Sen. Cathy Osten (D-Sprague). “We’ve heard people talk about what is important to them. This is what the people of Connecticut told us they need.”

The spending plan crafted by majority Democrats goes beyond Lamont’s budget proposal, especially on education spending.

It gives public colleges, including the University of Connecticut, $281 million above what Lamont recommended. Local schools would get an extra $248 million for spiraling special education costs, and wealthier districts would avoid $26 million in scheduled cuts under a multi-year school funding overhaul.

Democrats' original proposal called for $80 million extra of special education spending. But lawmakers added another $168 million during a heated debate Tuesday evening.

Vital nonprofits would also see $19 million over the governor’s budget.

The committee is also backing Lamont’s ambitious plan for Universal Child Care, which would cost $300 million in state surplus money up front.

“It’s going to be a balancing act that we still continue having to go forward with.” said state Rep. Toni Walker (D-New Haven), the panel’s other co-chair. “We have to also face the fact that we have Washington and the lack thereof coming from them to cover the services that we know that Connecticut needs.”

Democrats want to nix Lamont’s proposed 25 cent hike in bus fares, saving riders an estimated $6 million. But Metro-North commuters would still pay more, as Lamont is proposing.

But all of that spending comes at a cost.

The Democrats’ budget exceeds allowed state spending by $131 million, so leaders want to loosen the Connecticut’s spending and volatility caps. The latter cap limits using “volatile” capital gains tax revenues; instead, that money pays down the state’s massive pension debt.

Top Democrats said the cap is starving critical services at a time when Washington is pulling back.

“Some of the current fiscal guardrails, while originally well-intentioned, are too rigid to allow for the basic investments Connecticut must make to meet its obligations and grow responsibly,” Senate President Martin Looney (D-New Haven) and House Speaker Matt Ritter (D-Hartford) said in a joint statement. “To that end, we follow the lead of the Governor’s original proposed plan to raise the state’s volatility threshold. This will allow us to provide the level of service and opportunity our residents deserve.”

Republicans accused their counterparts of budget gimmicks.

“Calling this a ‘real budget for real people’ distorts reality,” said Connecticut House GOP leader Vin Candelora (R-North Branford). “There’s no justification for sending $280 million more to a higher education system whose colleges and universities are sitting on $1 billion in reserves – especially as towns raise property taxes and plead for more state aid. Free bus fare, growing illegal immigrant healthcare costs, earmarks for Democrat legislators, student loan forgiveness – the math doesn't work for residents struggling under the weight of costly government programs and bureaucracy.”

Lamont also has cost concerns.

“Some portions of this budget proposal include spending that may not be sustainable and could unfortunately result in cuts or tax increases under future state leaders," Lamont said in a statement. “Connecticut has gone down this road before and the result was financially harmful for taxpayers, municipalities and non-profits."

The Democrats’ plan does require the governor’s office to identify $90 million in savings. It also cancels scheduled raises for statewide elected officials, saving a modest $43,000 next year, and delays raises for state workers.

Lamont, a millionaire from Greenwich, does not accept a salary.

Despite the modest increase over Lamont’s budget, some groups worry that it won’t protect against cuts from Washington.

Once again, lawmakers are not proposing an increase in payments to HUSKY Medicaid providers. Chronically low reimbursements make it nearly impossible for some patients to find a doctor who accepts HUSKY.

“Adopting the administration’s proposed tax increases and payment reductions will result in devastating effects that will worsen financial burdens on hospitals at a time when they are already struggling,” the Connecticut Hospital Association said in a statement. “These policies, on top of no action to increase Medicaid reimbursement for hospital care, will make it more difficult for hospitals to meet their mission of caring for communities, growing and supporting the healthcare workforce, and investing in innovation to advance quality care.”

Looney and Ritter recently asked Lamont to declare a “fiscal emergency,” which would let Connecticut dip into its Budget Reserve Fund and suspend around $1.4 billion in pension payments.

Lamont has said the move is premature.

This week, the Legislature’s tax-writing committee will vote on their part of the state budget.

Then, lawmakers and Lamont will spend the next six weeks negotiating a final deal. Although the governor said the budget may have to be adjusted this fall once the picture from Washington becomes clearer.

“We’ll probably have a better idea in the next month, but if we don’t and we get thrown a wild card, we’ll have to come back in September or October,” Lamont told reporters on Monday.