Could a wildfire tragedy like what’s unfolding in Los Angeles happen in New Jersey?

The ongoing California firestorm has already destroyed more than 10,000 structures, burned more than 30,000 acres and claimed at least 10 lives.

Here in New Jersey, Ocean County is especially vulnerable to fires. Fires in 2021, 2023, and as recently as last November threatened hundreds of homes and lives in the county.

“The fuels rival California, so the fuels are just as volatile as those out in California,” said Assistant Division Forest Fire Warden Trevor Raynor. “The missing factor is usually just wind.”

So could a California situation happen here? It already has. Back in 1963, all the ingredients came together just right. It is known as “Black Saturday,” a day when fires torched 73,000 acres in Ocean County, including hundreds of homes and left seven people dead. Since then, the population has exploded six times that of 60 years ago.

“We use a program called regroup that puts messages out on social media to keep the public involved and abreast of what’s going on at the current time,” said Michael Eden, a forest fire expert working with the Ocean County Office of Emergency Management.

When the Jimmy’s Water Hole Fire threatened homes in Lakehurst and Manchester in April of 2023, the Forest Fire Service already had tools they’d been using to their advantage to protect these homes. It included years and years of prescribed burns.

“Sometimes the fires don’t even occur because there are no fuels to burn when that fire starts there and we can steer fires into those prescribed burns to get them away from developments or communities like that,” said Raynor.

Although the drought monitor still shows most of Ocean County in extreme drought there are positive signs to help this spring.

“We got nice rain before Thanksgiving which was heaven-sent and since then we had regular precip and snow and we’re feeling really good,” added Raynor.

But feeling good does not mean letting your guard down.

“The communities need to be prepared and keep on track with what’s going on, keep abreast with what’s going on,” said Eden.